"The role of water crises in conflicts in places like Syria, Nigeria and Iran often feature in media and policy outlets. Many believe that climate change could spark future conflicts. But research shows that most conflicts are driven by factors other than the effects of climate change."
Are we ready for the deadly heat waves of the future?
The Sahara is growing, thanks in part to climate change
Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change
Is it – or will it ever become – possible to attribute natural disasters to climate change? The question is attracting growing attention in the scientific literature, but it also deserves great attention in legal research. I remain unpersuaded that science can ever attribute a particular weather event to climate change, let alone the impacts of this event on societies, in abstraction from anything else. But climate change could sometimes be proven to have played a determinant role in creating the conditions where a natural disaster would become much more likely to occur; and this should be sufficient to attribute responsibility.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/
Climate change could force more than 140 million people from their homes by 2050, major new report finds
Some years ago, Norman Myers suggested that there would be 150 million "environmental refugees" caused by climate change in the 21st Century. Then he changed his mind: they would be 200 million. Then he changed his mind again: they could be up to 250 million. Christian Aid soon won the bid with the "b" number- announcing 1 billion "climate refugees" by 2100.
The only difficulty is that none of these figures was supported by any solid analysis of what a "climate" or "environmental refugee" is. Is it someone seeking refuge abroad (like current refugees), or in another part of the same country? Does it encompass individuals who are temporarily displaced, perhaps just evacuated for a few days during, say, a violent typhoon? Do all of these "climate refugees" share the same protection needs? Do they share anything at all?
Often, climate change does not directly cause displacement. The frequency of natural disasters may be related to climate change, but these are matters of probability: a natural disaster cannot, usually, be said to be "caused" by climate change. Likewise, a natural disaster does not displace people in a vacuum: a lot depends on the particular circumstances taken, for instance to prepare a society to a particular weather hazard. Displacement may be a measure to protect individuals in the midst of a cyclone, just as much as it can be a sign of a lack of preparedness when people literally run for their life. What is gained by putting people in a bag called "climate refugees"?
The scientific literature has progressively denounced these figures as based on little conceptual and analytical bases. Yet, numbers continue to attract the media. Numbers have gone down in the latest report, which speaks about 140 million of "climate refugees" – but with this specific number comes, implicitly, the claim of a more accurate scientific method for determining and predicting the number of "climate refugees" a little like climate scientists predict the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on a thermometer.
"Experts warn of 'looming human crisis' as millions are driven to migrate within national borders due to water scarcity, sea-level rise and storm surges"
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-force-140-million-people-from-homes-2050-developing-countries-global-warming-report-a8263741.html
"Experts warn of 'looming human crisis' as millions are driven to migrate within national borders due to water scarcity, sea-level rise and storm surges"
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-force-140-million-people-from-homes-2050-developing-countries-global-warming-report-a8263741.html